What Is Interest Rate Arbitrage

What Is Interest Rate Arbitrage explained by professional forex trading experts the “ForexSQ” FX trading team.

What Is Interest Rate Arbitrage

Interest rates vary between countries based on their current economic cycle, which creates an opportunity for international investors. By purchasing a foreign currency with a domestic currency, investors can profit from the difference in interest rates between two countries. While these bets are no longer as popular as they used to be, they are still widely used in the financial markets.

In this article, we will take a closer look at interest rate arbitrage and the strategies that international investors use to profit from it.

Example: Covered Interest Arbitrage

The most common type of interest rate arbitrage is called covered interest rate arbitrage, which means that exchange rate risk is hedged with a forward contract. Since a sharp movement in the forex market could erase any gains made through the difference in exchange rates, investors agree to a set currency exchange rate in the future in order to erase that risk.

For example, suppose that the U.S. dollar (USD) deposit interest rate is 1%, while Australia’s (AUD) rate is closer to 3.5%, with a 1.5000 USD/AUD exchange rate. Investing $100,000 USD domestically at 1% for a year would result in a future value of $101,000. However, exchanging USD for AUD and investing in Australia would result in a future value of $103,500.

Using forward contracts, investors can also hedge the exchange rate risk by locking in a future exchange rate. Suppose that a 1-year forward contract for USD/AUD would be 1.4800 – a slight premium in the market.

The exchange back to dollars would therefore result in $1,334 loss on the exchange rate, which still yields an overall $2,169 gain on the position and offers downside protection.

Carry Trade & Other Forms of Arbitrage

The carry trade is a form of interest rate arbitrage that involves borrowing capital from a country with low interest rates and lending it in a country with high interest rates.

These trades can be either covered or uncovered in nature and have been blamed for significant currency movements in one direction or the other as a result, particularly in countries like Japan.

In the past, the Japanese yen has been extensively used for these purposes due to the country’s low interest rates. In fact, by the end of 2007, it was estimated that some $1 trillion was staked on the yen carry trade. Traders would borrow yen and invest in higher yielding assets, like the U.S. dollar, subprime loans, emerging market debt, and similar asset classes until the collapse.

The key to a carry trade is finding an opportunity where interest rate volatility was greater than the exchange rate’s volatility in order to reduce the risk of loss and create the “carry”. With monetary policy becoming increasingly mature, these opportunities are far and few between in recent years.

Risks with Interest Rate Arbitrage

Despite the impeccable logic, interest rate arbitrage isn’t without risk. The foreign exchange markets are fraught with risk, due to the lack of cohesive regulation and tax agreements. In fact, some economists argue that covered interest rate arbitrage is no longer a profitable business unless transaction costs can be reduced to below market rates.

Some potential risks include:

Differing tax treatment.
Foreign exchange controls.
Supply or demand inelasticity.
Transaction costs.
Slippage during execution.

Key Points to Remember

Interest rates vary between countries based on their economic health and various other factors, which creates a potential opportunity for investors to profit.
The most common type of interest rate arbitrage is called covered interest rate arbitrage, which means that exchange rate risk is hedged out with a forward contract.
The carry trade is a form of interest rate arbitrage that involves borrowing capital from a country with low interest rates and lending it in a country with high interest rates.
Interest rate arbitrage involves a number of risks – namely risks stemming from the dynamics, lack of regulation, and cohesive tax policy in the forex exchange markets.