Dollar Drop Signals World’s Best Forecaster to Start Buying

Posted by Forexsq 52 days ago (http://www.bloomberg.com)
img It’s time for investors who bailed on the dollar in the past few weeks to get back in, says the most-accurate currencies forecaster.

The greenback has tumbled 4.3 percent versus the euro since touching a 12-year high last month amid speculation the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates, in part because the dollar’s strength is hurting U.S. economic growth. That concern is overblown, according to ING Groep NV, which topped Bloomberg’s rankings of foreign-exchange analysts for the second quarter in a row.

“The market is now pricing in a very subdued pace of the tightening cycle -- we disagree,” Petr Krpata, a foreign-exchange strategist at ING in London, said on April 1 by phone. “We just see the latest correction as a perfect opportunity to get into the trade again.”

Even with the recent reversal, the dollar has rallied between 3.7 percent and 29 percent against all of its major peers since mid-2014 as the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates attracted cash to the U

Aussie jumps more than 1 percent as RBA keeps rates unchanged

Posted by Forexsq 52 days ago (http://www.reuters.com)
img The Australian dollar gained more than 1 percent against the U.S. dollar, on track for its biggest daily rise in more than two weeks, after the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised many investors by refraining from cutting interest rates.

The Aussie rose to $0.7711, its highest in a week, from around $0.76 before the decision and extending its recovery from a six-year trough of $0.7534 set on Thursday.

A fall in iron ore prices, Australia's single biggest export earner, and a currency that is still seen to be above fair value had left many convinced that the RBA would cut rates either this month or next.

The RBA policy board noted that while the Aussie had fallen against a strong greenback, the decline against a basket of currencies had been less and a lower exchange rate was needed to help the economy.

"Should the Aussie appreciate notably today or over the next few days we would have to come to the conclusion that the market has misunderstood the RBA's intention (in refra

Here Are the Suspicious Moves in the Australian Dollar That Set Off an Investigation

Posted by Forexsq 52 days ago (http://www.bloomberg.com)
img The Australian dollar is up today after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced interest rates would remain unchanged, surprising most traders who were expecting a cut. However, regulators noticed that the spike actually began before the announcement was officially released. Even more bizarre, it's the third month in a row that the aussie has made a sharp move just moments before a monetary policy decision was made public.

As you can see of this chart of the minute before and after the 2:30 p.m. local release (22:30 U.S. Eastern Time) on February 3, the Australian Dollar Spot fell about 0.6 percent in the final seconds before the announcement was made.

Securities regulators in Australia say they will investigate the situation to see why this keeps happening. However, the fact that the moves happened right before the announcement doesn't necessarily mean someone is getting the information early. Sean Keane, an Auckland-based analyst at Triple T Consulting, told Bloomberg News tha

Why the Fed needs Europe's permission to hike rates

Posted by Forexsq 52 days ago (http://www.cnbc.com)
img The market is sending signals that the Federal Reserve may not make much headway raising interest rates during the next two years—even if central bankers are intent on doing so, Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. market strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said on Tuesday.

The Fed will not be able to raise its federal funds rate above 1.5 percent by the end of 2017, Golub said. If it tries to do so, the dollar will start to rise, putting pressure on the economy and causing the central bank to retreat.

"I would love to see the Fed be able to move toward 2 percent, but with free money in Europe, it's very hard for them to get tighter," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "Are we asking the permission of the Europeans for our central bank policies? I'm not sure, but the market's saying [we are]."

The Fed faces the challenge of raising rates at a time when European central bankers are suppressing rates by purchasing large amounts of bonds. That monetary policy disparity is expected to send invest

Bitcoin alternative in 'pyramid scheme' storm

Posted by Forexsq 52 days ago (http://www.cnbc.com)
img The founders of a new digital currency, known as LEOCoin, have hit back at reports published over the weekend linking them with a suspected pyramid scheme back in 2012.

Last week, U.K.-based Learning Enterprises Organisation (LEO) unveiled a trading platform in Hong Kong for its cryptocurrency called LEOCoin, which the company is promoting as an alternative to more popular digital currencies like bitcoin.

At a London launch the previous week, LEO boasted that it had already promoted the product to its current client base, claiming it meant over 100,000 entrepreneurs were already actively using the cryptocurrency in anticipation of its official trading debut, with around 30,000 merchants already signed up.

It also claimed this made it the "second largest digital currency" in the world, second to bitcoin, but has been slammed by reports on industry websites in the last week. Joel Dalais, a virtual currency entrepreneur and the director of bitcoin exchange IBWT, said on cryptoco

Stocks higher with Dow briefly up 100 points; oil, dollar eyed

Posted by Forexsq 52 days ago (http://www.cnbc.com)
img U.S. stocks traded higher on Tuesday as investors eyed weaker oil prices and renewed dollar strength ahead of the unofficial beginning of earnings season on Wednesday.

"It's a very light day today in terms of economic news," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital. "The market's going nowhere. It's not breaking into new territory and it's not falling apart. I think investors should be cautious and defensive."

Stocks have remained in a range, with the S&P 500 roughly between 2,051 and 2,100.

"Yesterday had the characteristics of a shakeout, but we are not convinced that the pullback has fully matured yet," BTIG chief technical strategist Katie Stockton said in a note. "A breakout above intraday resistance near 2,080 by the S&P futures (2,089 for the SPX) would be an "all-clear" signal, in our view."

Equities extended gains in late morning trade with the Dow Jones industrial average briefly adding 100 points.

Healthcare led S&P 500 gains, wh

Fed should not raise rates until late 2016: Kocherlakota

Posted by Forexsq 52 days ago (http://www.reuters.com)
img Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on Tuesday laid out a case for waiting until the second half of 2016 to start raising interest rates, and to then raise them gradually to just 2 percent by the end of 2017.

It was the first time the dovish policymaker detailed his preferred path for "late and slow" rate hikes. His remarks afterwards to reporters suggest he is increasingly worried that market expectations for nearer-term rate rises, fueled by comments from many of Kocherlakota's Fed colleagues, could knock the wind out of the economic recovery.

"That conversation (about raising rates) in and of itself is a tightening of policy," Kocherlakota said. "I do worry about the ongoing conversation about tightening monetary policy being a drag on economic performance both in terms of growth and in terms of employment outcomes."

Most Fed policymakers, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, believe the Fed will need to start raising rates this year as the labor market improves a

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Posted by Forexsq 17 days ago (http://www.fxstay.com)
img Forex Advertising - Fxstay.com provide several places for Forex Advertisements , You can Advertising your website or broker by banners or logo in our Forex Advertisements parts in PPC , CPM or fixed price Forex Advertising

Euro-Area Bonds Climb as Coeure Says ECB to Expedite Purchases

Posted by Forexsq 10 days ago (http://www.bloomberg.com)
img Euro-area government bonds advanced as European Central Bank policy makers reasserted their commitment to the asset-purchase program that pushed yields across the region to record lows earlier this year.

Benchmark German 10-year yields dropped to the lowest level in a week after Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said on Monday the ECB will increase the pace of purchases under its quantitative-easing program in May and June. The central bank is ready to extend its bond-buying plan if needed, Governing Council member Christian Noyer said separately in Paris on Tuesday.

“The ECB is signaling its determination to maintain the bond-purchase program and accelerate the process before the summer due to liquidity concerns,” said Nick Stamenkovic, a fixed-income strategist at broker RIA Capital Markets Ltd. in Edinburgh. “This is supportive for European government bonds.”

Germany’s 10-year bund yield fell nine basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 0.56 percent at 9:32 a.m. Lond

Once Over $12 Trillion, the World’s Currency Reserves Are Now Shrinking

Posted by Forexsq 53 days ago (http://www.bloomberg.com)
img The decade-long surge in foreign-currency reserves held by the world’s central banks is coming to an end.

Global reserves declined to $11.6 trillion in March from a record $12.03 trillion in August 2014, halting a five-fold increase that began in 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While the drop may be overstated because the strengthening dollar reduced the value of other reserve currencies such as the euro, it still underlines a shift after central banks -- with most of them located in developing nations like China and Russia -- added an average $824 billion to reserves each year over the past decade.

Beyond being emblematic of the dollar’s return to its role as the world’s undisputed dominant currency, the drop in reserves has several potential implications for global markets. It could make it harder for emerging-market countries to boost their money supply and shore up faltering economic growth; it could add to declines in the euro; and it could damp demand for U.

US dollar bulls keep the faith

Posted by Forexsq 53 days ago (http://www.cnbc.com)
img Despite Friday's disappointing U.S. jobs numbers, the dollar will continue to rein supreme assuming the Federal Reserve looks on course to raise rates before year-end, analysts say.

"We saw this last year, when U.S. first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) disappointed," DBS senior currency strategist Philip Wee told CNBC. "So, we had corrections in the dollar and the Dow (Jones Industrial Average), but the dollar went up very strongly in the second-half of (2014)".

Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday put a pause on the dollar's seemingly unstoppable rally. Non-farm payroll came in at 126,000 in March, sharply below expectations for a 245,000 increase in a Reuters poll and marking the lowest reading since December 2013. The data saw the U.S. dollar index drop 0.78 percent to 96.76 on Friday.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates against the backdrop of policy easing at many central banks around the world have seen the greenback surge. The

Aussie on tenterhooks ahead of RBA meeting

Posted by Forexsq 53 days ago (http://www.cnbc.com)
img With the Australian dollar trading around the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) preferred level of $0.75, will the central bank hold off on cutting rates at Tuesday's meeting?

According to Mitul Kotecha, head of FX strategy, Asia-Pacific at Barclays, the RBA is likely to pull the rate cut trigger sooner rather than later given the recent collapse in iron ore prices – a key export for Australia.

"It's interesting, the RBA had said they were comfortable with the Aussie dollar at $0.75, but the reality [is] now commodity prices, [such as] iron ore, have fallen even further. They probably want to see[the Australian dollar] even lower now," Kotecha told CNBC.

Last week, iron ore prices fell below $50 a tonne for the first time in a decade on concerns over a supply glut and soft Chinese demand. Iron ore accounts for close to one-fifth of the value of Australia's total exports.

"I think $0.75 is gone, I think it's probably in the region of towards $0.70 if anything," Kotecha said

Dollar extends drop vs. euro after payrolls-inspired selloff

Posted by Forexsq 53 days ago (http://www.marketwatch.com)
img The euro edged higher versus the dollar Monday, extending gains scored Friday after weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data saw investors push back expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The euro traded at $1.0991, up from $1.0972 in North American trade late Friday. The U.S. currency was up versus the Japanese yen at ÂĄ119.07 compared with ÂĄ118.93 late Friday in New York.

The ICE dollar index a measure of the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.1% at 96.651.

Trading activity in Asia and Europe was subdued, with many traders still away from their desks for the Easter vacation and other public holidays. The dollar found downside support against the yen to stabilize above ¥119 following Friday’s losses.

Japanese importers and institutional investors were among the investors eager to buy the greenback on dips. Market participants also noted some indirect support for the dollar against the yen via selling of the Japanese currency agains

Euro Falls Near $1, but European Goods Remain Pricey

Posted by Forexsq 53 days ago (Editorial)
img Americans hunting for a bargain on a new Beemer, bottle of Chateau Margaux or Hermes handbag thanks to the sliding euro should put away their gold cards. European luxury goods sold in the U.S. still carry luxurious price tags.

The European currency has fallen 10 percent against the dollar this year. In theory, car dealerships, department stores and other companies that sell goods from Europe could pass on the savings to their American customers, said Ira Kalish, chief global economist at Deloitte, the consulting and accounting firm.

"But what would be the point of doing that?" Kalish asked. Demand for anything made in Europe is so strong that they have little trouble moving merchandise. "From their perspective, it's better to leave the price unchanged and pocket the profit."

The euro has been in a long tailspin. Last April, it was trading just shy of $1.40. Since then, it sank as low as $1.04 in March before bouncing back to $1.10 on Monday.

In other words, you used to hav

Dollar dips in Easter holiday trade, jobs data overhang

Posted by Forexsq 53 days ago (http://uk.reuters.com)
img The dollar cut early losses on Monday but continued to feel the carry-over effects of a disappointing U.S. jobs report from Friday that throws into question the timing for a U.S. interest rate increase.

Expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sometime later this year has fuelled the dollar's rally since mid-2014. Higher U.S. interest rates will put dollar-denominated assets at a yield advantage versus other currencies such as the euro and yen where interest rates are being kept low.

Friday's closely watched employment data showed U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 126,000 in March, the smallest gain since December 2013 and well under the 245,000 economists had forecast. On the brighter side, average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent.

European markets remained closed on Monday for the Easter holiday, limiting trading volumes.

"The market is underweight dollars and looking for opportunities to buy dollars because even with the weak NFP number last mon
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