Oil Price sinks 4 percent and hits new low on China

Posted by Forexsq 45 days ago (http://www.reuters.com)
img Oil prices fell more than 4 percent to fresh 6-1/2-year lows on Monday after Chinese stock markets suffered their biggest one-day drop since the global financial crisis, intensifying worries over the outlook for global oil demand.

Inaction by the Chinese government following an 11 percent rout in local stock markets last week encouraged a free-fall in global equities and other commodities on Monday. As a consequence, losses on the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index for this month added up to as much as 1 trillion euros.

"Today's falls are not about oil market fundamentals. It's all about China," Carsten Fritsch, senior oil analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, told Reuters Global Oil Forum.

"The fear is of a hard landing and that things get out of the control of the Chinese authorities."

Brent oil LCOc1 was trading down $1.85, more than 4 percent, at $43.61 a barrel at 0950 GMT, after touching an intraday low of $43.28, its weakest since March 2009.

U.S. light cr

Oil Price Jumps Most in Three Years on Faster U.S. Economic Growth

Posted by Forexsq 41 days ago (http://www.bloomberg.com)
img Oil price jumped the most in more than six years, caught up in a relief rally that swept the globe as the U.S. economy grew more than predicted.

West Texas Intermediate futures rose 10 percent, the biggest gain since March 2009. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 3.7 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, exceeding all estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index headed for its biggest two-day gain since 2009 as Chinese shares snapped a five-day losing streak.

Prices extended gains after Royal Dutch Shell Plc issued a force majeure on Bonny Light exports from Nigeria as it worked to repair two crude pipelines shut because of thefts and a leak.

Oil had slumped below $40 this week as concern over slowing demand in China fueled volatility in global markets. Prices are down about 31 percent from this year’s closing peak in June on speculation that a world supply glut will be prolonged. OPEC members are sustaining output while U.S. stoc

OPEC Oil Price drop and OPEC concerned about it

Posted by Forexsq 37 days ago (http://www.reuters.com)
img OPEC Oil Price drop and concerned the OPEC drop in oil prices - trading near multi-year lows - and is ready to talk to other producers, an article in an OPEC publication issued on Monday said.

"Today's continuing pressure on prices, brought about by higher crude production, coupled with market speculation, remains a cause for concern for OPEC and its members — indeed for all stakeholders in the industry," the commentary in the latest OPEC Bulletin said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries renewed its openness for dialogue with other producers. OPEC has refused to cut its own output without help from outside producers such as Russia, which have also declined to lower supply.

"OPEC, as always, will continue to do all in its power to create the right enabling environment for the oil market to achieve equilibrium with fair and reasonable prices."

"As the Organization has stressed on numerous occasions, it stands ready to talk to all other producers. But this

Oil Price Will Go Lower Than $20, Goldman Says

Posted by Forexsq 27 days ago (http://www.bloomberg.com)
img The global surplus of oil is even bigger than Goldman Sachs Group Inc. thought and that could drive prices as low as $20 a barrel.

While it’s not the base-case scenario, a failure to reduce production fast enough may require prices near that level to clear the oversupply, Goldman said in a report e-mailed Friday while cutting its Brent and WTI crude forecasts through 2016. The International Energy Agency predicted that crude stockpiles will diminish in the second half of next year as supply outside OPEC declines by the most since 1992.

“The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we now forecast this surplus to persist in 2016,” Goldman analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in the report. “We continue to view U.S. shale as the likely near-term source of supply adjustment.”

Goldman trimmed its 2016 estimate for West Texas Intermediate to $45 a barrel from a May projection of $57 on the expectation that OPEC production growth, resilient supply from out

Oil prices could sink to $15 a barrel

Posted by Forexsq 50 days ago (http://money.cnn.com)
img American drivers could soon be partying like it's 1999.

Oil prices have already taken a dramatic fall that's saved consumers big time at the pump. Last week, crude tumbled below $42 a barrel, down from $100 last year.

One big-name investor is predicting an even sharper drop.

"There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest we have bottomed. You could have $15 or $20 oil -- easily," influential money manager David Kotok told CNNMoney.

A further decline to $15 a barrel would be huge. Oil hasn't traded that low since early 1999, when gasoline at the pump was selling for under $1 a gallon.

Kotok's views on the economy and financial markets are closely watched. The 72-year-old co-founder of Cumberland Advisors manages more than $2 billion in assets and hosts an annual invite-only fishing trip that doubles as an economic summit. Known as "Camp Kotok," the event lures leaders in finance to Maine each summer.

"I'm an old goat. I remember when oil was $3 a barrel," said Kotok, who

Oil slips closer to six-year low on Japan data, oversupply

Posted by Forexsq 52 days ago (http://www.reuters.com)
img Oil fell towards six-year lows on Monday on data showing the economy of Japan, the world's third-biggest oil consumer, contracted in the second quarter.

The global oversupply picture was exacerbated by another weekly jump in U.S. oil rig additions on Friday, hinting at growing production, and news that Oman produced a record-breaking 1 million barrels per day in July.

U.S. crude CLc1, or West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for September was trading 65 cents lower at $41.85 a barrel at 1155 GMT, close to its lowest level in more than six years.

Brent futures LCOc1 briefly reversed losses on news that Kuwait's 200,000-barrel-per-day Shuaiba refinery had been shut down following a fire.

Brent for October reached an intra-day high of $49.44 a barrel shortly after news of the fire but had fallen back to $49.05 by 1155 GMT, down 14 cents on its previous close. The Brent September contract expired on Friday.

Over the past two weeks, U.S. crude prices have fallen by more than 10 per

Gold prices will plunge to 350 dollar an ounce

Posted by Forexsq 69 days ago (http://money.cnn.com)
img Gold's big plunge may have only just begun.

A prominent gold forecaster predicts the yellow metal will drop to a mere $350 an ounce, a level unseen since 2003. It's dramatically lower than what most experts are currently calling for.

But Claude Erb's prediction might have merit. Back in 2012, Erb, a former commodities trader at TCW Group, co-authored a landmark research paper with Duke University professor Campbell Harvey that was early to predict gold's downfall. At the time, gold was fetching north of $1,600 an ounce. Now it's trading below $1,100.

The paper used historical analysis to show that if gold is an inflation hedge -- as many people believe -- then it's extremely expensive at current levels.

"Gold is no more or less volatile than stocks or anything else. It can be wildly overvalued, and it's very overvalued right now," Erb told CNNMoney.

Gold could crash more: Erb and Harvey's research suggests that gold's fair value is about $825 an ounce. That would repres

Crude Oil Falls Most in a Week

Posted by Forexsq 86 days ago (http://www.bloomberg.com)
img The nuclear accord reached in Vienna on Tuesday could eventually reshape global oil markets. After almost two years of talks, the holder of the world’s fourth-biggest crude reserves will benefit from an easing of international sanctions on exports in return for curbs on its nuclear program, according to an official involved in the talks.

How Much More Oil Can Iran Produce?

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh says the country can increase exports by 500,000 barrels a day as soon as sanctions are lifted, and then an additional 500,000 a day in the following six months. Iran produced an average of 2.8 million barrels a day this year.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says adding 500,000 barrels a day will take about a year because Iran must first demonstrate its compliance with the terms of the nuclear accord and revive aging wells. Further expansion will need foreign investment, BNP Paribas SA says. The country also has 30 million barrels stored on tankers that it could ship more

Oil glut worsens as OPEC market-share battle just beginning: IEA

Posted by Forexsq 148 days ago (http://www.reuters.com)
img A global oil glut is building as OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia pumps near record highs in an attempt to win a market-share battle against stubbornly resistant U.S. shale production, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

The West's energy watchdog said in a monthly report that although higher-than-expected oil demand was helping to ease the glut, growth in global oil consumption was far from spectacular.

As a result, signs are emerging that the crude oil glut is shifting into refined products markets, which could make a recent rally in oil prices unsustainable.

"Despite tentatively bullish signals in the United States, and barring any unforeseen disruption elsewhere, the market's short-term fundamentals still look relatively loose," said the IEA, which coordinates energy policies of industrial nations.

Global oil production exceeds demand by around 2 million barrels per day, or over 2 percent, following spectacular growth in U.S. shale production and OPEC's d

Oil rallies on U.S. jobs data, bullish EIA monthly report

Posted by Forexsq 183 days ago (http://www.reuters.com)
img Oil futures rallied on Tuesday, erasing losses on strong jobs data and U.S. government forecasts for lower domestic crude production growth and higher global demand for oil.

U.S. job openings surged to a 14-year high in February the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), lifting oil prices.

"That JOLTS report was certainly quite strong and strong employment equals strong gasoline demand," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

Oil got more support from news that Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota made a case for waiting until the second half of 2016 to raise interest rates, and to then raise them gradually to just 2 percent by the end of 2017.

Crude futures got additional lift when an Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly report raised forecasts for U.S. and global demand growth and lowered forecasts for crude oil production growth in the United States.

U.S. May crude CLc1 was up

Oil prices to stay lower for longer, says Goldman Sachs

Posted by Forexsq 184 days ago (http://www.marketwatch.com)
img Thrilled about the recent bounce-back in oil prices? Well, it’s too early to get excited about the seven-week high reached on Monday, according to Goldman Sachs analysts, who predict we still have months of low oil prices ahead of us.

While noting that a decline in U.S. rig count has been faster than expected, that reduction is still not enough to change the course of the oil market, they said in a report dated Monday.

“It remains insufficient in our view to balance the U.S. market in 2016,” they said. “Prices need to stay low for longer to achieve a sufficient and sustainable slowdown in U.S. production growth.”

Goldman Sachs has forecast that crude oil will trade around $40 a barrel over the next three months, although it has noted there is “modest upside” to that prediction — that is, there’s a risk prices could be higher.

In early March, the investment bank argued its bearish outlook might be too pessimistic, but despite that concern, it hasn’t since made any change to

Gold retreats from 7 week top as dollar bounces back

Posted by Forexsq 184 days ago (http://www.cnbc.com)

Gold edged lower on Tuesday as the dollar recovered and European shares rose, but uncertainty about the timing of a U.S. interest rate increase kept bullion not far from a seven-week high above $1,200 an ounce.

Bullion rose to its highest since Feb. 17 on Monday, supported by a weakening dollar after U.S. non-farm payrolls data fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve could delay an anticipated rate increase this year.

U.S. jobs posted the slowest growth in more than a year in March.

Spot gold was down 0.6 percent at $1,210.80 an ounce, while U.S. gold for June delivery slipped 0.8 percent to $1,208.60 an ounce.

The dollar rose versus a basket of major currencies, aided by higher Treasury yields, while European shares also climbed, denting gold's appeal as an insurance against risk.

A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies, while returns on U.S. bonds are closely watched by the gold market, given that

Oil by Rail Exploded in Just the Last 5 Years

Posted by Forexsq 184 days ago (http://www.bloomberg.com)
img America's oil boom has unearthed new supplies of crude so fast that the nation's system of pipelines hasn't been able to keep up. And so an industry is born: Crude by rail.

The animated map below shows the remarkable rise of trains that ship oil to refineries across the country. There was a 50-fold increase in crude by rail between January 2010 and January 2015, according to the Energy Information Administration, which started to comprehensively track the industry for the first time last week. In 2014, more than a million barrels of crude a day traveled by rail.

The sudden rise of new horizontal-drilling techniques, and fracking, has pushed U.S. oil production to the highest since 1972. The new boom towns aren't adequately served by pipelines, so oil companies started loading the output into tanker cars. Rail shipping costs more than traditional pipelines, but it provides a a new level of flexibility and scalability to American oil.

Rail is now the primary mode of shippin

Oil up more than $1 after Saudi's Asia price hike

Posted by Forexsq 185 days ago (http://www.reuters.com)
img Oil futures climbed more than $1 a barrel on Monday, after Saudi Arabia raised its prices for crude sales to Asia for the second month running, signaling improved demand in the region.

International benchmark Brent regained ground after tumbling as much as 5 percent on Thursday, when a preliminary nuclear deal was finally reached between world powers and Iran. More Iranian oil could enter global markets if that is followed by a comprehensive deal by June.

But expectations of an immediate increase in supply have been tempered as analysts warned a ramp-up in exports could take months and would likely not happen before 2016.

"While clearly a bearish headline, a final deal and full lifting of sanctions still faces a number of obstacles," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.

"Even if a final deal is reached, we do not expect any physical market impact before 2016," the analysts said.

Brent crude for May delivery LCOc1 touched a high of $56.90 a barrel and was up $1.50 fr

Nuclear deal means more Iran oil but just not this year

Posted by Forexsq 188 days ago (http://www.reuters.com)
img A framework accord to curb Iran's nuclear program forged on Thursday could eventually allow Tehran to reclaim lost ground in the global oil market. Yet the deal all but guarantees that cannot happen before next year.

By ensuring that sanctions remain intact until Western powers are satisfied Tehran is adhering to the terms, and giving negotiators until June 30 to hammer out a comprehensive agreement, the deal offers little chance for any significant increase in exports until 2016.

While global Brent oil prices tumbled as much as 5 percent on Thursday to $54 in anticipation of a deal that could allow Iran to begin selling more crude within months, traders later began weighing the timing of that return. Brent traded at more than $55 a barrel by day's end.

Verifying compliance by Iran, once the world's fifth-largest oil producer, will "likely take many months after implementation, which itself is likely to slip from the June 30 target," said Bob McNally, president of energy rese

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